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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • The US certainly. The EU is a bit of a different story. BEV sales in the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Finland are around 50% already. Looking at the total market it is also quite decent and sees strong growth. There are quite a few cheap BEVs entering the market soon, so the share in other markets is probably going to increase.

    Also the ICE phase out 2035 might stay. France and Spain both want to keep it. With the votes from the smaller EU members above, they can block it, since it needs a qualified majority to pass in the council. If that happens EV share is obviously going to increase quickly.



  • There are a bunch of issues here. First of all EVs are a mass market now. We are at the point were EV production is no longer just added to ICE production, but is replacing it. Often that means building up new factories and closing old ones. For some companies making combustion engine parts, this means they are dead as companies. Within the large car makers it similarily leads to departments and factories being closed. That is also why the fight against EVs is lead by parts manufacturers and not the large automakers themself.

    The other very obvious problem are oil companies. The EU is currently at about peak ICE cars in its car fleet and cars make up a huge part of oil consumption.







  • The German car industry is more then just the big car brands. They are aware of the Chinese competition and they have invested a lot to be able to compete. However for parts suppliers this is much more difficult. If you are a making some metal engine casts for example, you really do not have expertise, which translate well to EV production. So you probably go down. Those sort of ICE car part suppliers have fired 50k workers in Germany this year already. The transition is hurting them badly and they would love five more years.

    The good news is that Germany is at 30% BEV production and rising fast. So those companies are already in a very bad place and so is their lobbying power long term. For Germany Spain and France blocking this is probably the best thing to happen. Oh and the EV industry did get buyers subsidies in Germany for the next five years.