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12 days agothat’s not what my argument was at all, and not what the graph showed. anyway this gave me enough anxiety that i’m done
lime!
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Cake day: August 21st, 2024
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i’ve provided mistral with sources and asked it to summarize them, then do averages on those summarisations. i’ve not just asked it to pull data from wherever (except the scrapping thing). i too think ai’s are full of shit, but i can go back and check because i provided the data.
the assumptions made in your text give a gCO2/kWh figure of about half the IEA’s, where’s that from? also, the emissions numbers of your fossil fuels engines are way off. assuming a fuel consumption of 10l/100km, the number for a petrol car would be 230g CO2/km rather than 150. also you’re mixing your units a lot.
The UK isn’t even in the EU, and different countries certainly have different energy mixes anyway.
there’s a huge mass of cables connecting the uk to the eu. energy you use is never “from” a single source, it’s from wherever it’s generated, which means it’s from the eu grid. i don’t even know why the uk is in this conversation?
I literally quoted your own sources! I followed the links and I read them. Didn’t you? I quoted them back to you. What a weird comment.
i did. i used the actual numbers presented by the sources though, rather than the predictions.
your first paragraph makes no sense. yes the eu includes more countries than the uk. it’s a connected market.
these stats are by polestar and rivian, as it says in the thing. if you have better sources, give them to me.
check my followup post.
I wanted to double-check my numbers so i found a reddit thread asking people how often they charge their cars, and tried to extract info from it using mistral (so take it with a grain of salt. it gave sources but i managed to close the page after screenshotting).
transcript
User: how many times a week do people in this reddit thread charge their cars on average? https://old.reddit.com/r/electriccars/comments/1c0ucpg/ev_owners_how_often_do_you_charge_your_ev_and_how/
Mistral: In the Reddit thread you linked, most EV owners report charging their cars about 2–3 times per week on average. Many users mentioned plugging in their EVs at home whenever convenient, often overnight, rather than waiting for the battery to run low. Some charge daily out of habit, while others charge every few days depending on their driving needs and battery range. The majority have access to home charging, which makes frequent top-ups easy and convenient.
Charging Frequency (from user comments):
- About 30–40% of users charge daily, often overnight at home, regardless of battery level.
- Another 30–40% charge 2–3 times per week, usually when their battery drops below a certain range (e.g., 100 miles or 50%).
- The remaining 20–30% charge less frequently, such as once a week or only when needed for longer trips.
Typical Charging Behavior:
- Many users set their charge limit to 60–80% for daily use to preserve battery health.
- Some Tesla owners (especially with LFP batteries) keep their cars plugged in most of the time, charging to 100% without issue.
- Users with shorter commutes (e.g., <50 miles/day) often charge every 2–3 days, while those with longer commutes or less efficient EVs charge daily.
Range Added per Charge:
- Short Commutes (<50 miles/day): Many users add 50–100 miles per charge, often charging every 2–3 days.
- Moderate Use (50–150 miles/day): Users in this group typically add 100–200 miles per session, charging daily or every other day.
- Longer Trips or Less Frequent Charging: Some users add 150–300 miles, charging once a week or as needed.
Summary Table (Based on Thread Comments)
Miles Added Per Charge Frequency Mentioned Typical Use Case 50–100 miles Common Short commutes, 2–3x/week 100–150 miles Very common Daily commutes, overnight charge 150–300 miles Less common Long trips, weekly charging Inference: Most home chargers add enough range to cover their daily driving, rarely letting the battery drop below 20–30%. The data is sufficient to infer that 50–150 miles per charge is the norm for regular use.
User: how about car models? are there enough mentions of which model people drive that we can figure out the average number of kWhs used per capita from the added range and the size of the battery of the mentioned models?
Mistral: The Reddit thread does mention several specific EV models, and we can use their battery sizes and the reported range added per charge to estimate average kWh used per person. Here’s what we know:
Commonly Mentioned Models & Battery Sizes
From the thread, the most frequently mentioned models include:
- Tesla Model 3 (Standard/Long Range): ~50–82 kWh
- Tesla Model Y (Standard/Long Range): ~60–81 kWh
- Hyundai Kona Electric: ~39–64 kWh
- Chevy Bolt: ~65 kWh
- Ford Mustang Mach-E: ~68–98 kWh
- Nissan Leaf: ~40–62 kWh
Reported Range Added per Charge
- Most users add 50–150 miles per charge.
- A few add 150–250 miles (usually for longer trips or less frequent charging).
Estimating kWh Used per Charge
Using the EPA efficiency ratings (miles per kWh) for these models, we can estimate kWh used per charge:
Model Battery Size (kWh) EPA Efficiency (mi/kWh) Reported Range Added Estimated kWh Used Per Charge Tesla Model 3 (LR) 82 4.1 100–150 miles 24–37 kWh Tesla Model Y (LR) 81 3.8 100–150 miles 26–39 kWh Hyundai Kona 64 3.2 50–100 miles 16–31 kWh Chevy Bolt 65 3.6 50–100 miles 14–28 kWh Ford Mach-E (ER) 98 3.0 100–150 miles 33–50 kWh Nissan Leaf 40–62 3.0 50–100 miles 17–33 kWh Note: Efficiency varies with driving conditions, but these are reasonable averages.
Average kWh Used per Charge (Per Capita)
- For 50–100 miles added: ~15–35 kWh per charge
- For 100–150 miles added: ~25–50 kWh per charge
Most users fall in the 20–40 kWh per charge range, depending on their model and daily needs.
User: using the data on this page https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2025/emissions can we create a table for how much emissions each car would produce while charging in the listed regions? use the 2021 number.
Mistral: Here is a table estimating the CO2 emissions per 100 km for common EV models when charged in different regions, using 2021 CO2 emissions per kWh data from the IEA and typical battery sizes and efficiencies:
CO2 Emissions per 100 km for EVs by Region (2021 Data)
Region CO2 per kWh (g) Tesla Model 3 (15 kWh/100 km) Hyundai Kona (17 kWh/100 km) Chevy Bolt (16 kWh/100 km) Ford Mach-E (18 kWh/100 km) European Union ~250 3.75 kg CO2 4.25 kg CO2 4.00 kg CO2 4.50 kg CO2 United States ~380 5.70 kg CO2 6.46 kg CO2 6.08 kg CO2 6.84 kg CO2 China ~550 8.25 kg CO2 9.35 kg CO2 8.80 kg CO2 9.90 kg CO2 India ~700 10.50 kg CO2 11.90 kg CO2 11.20 kg CO2 12.60 kg CO2 Notes & Assumptions
- CO2 per kWh (2021): EU ~250g, US ~380g, China ~550g, India ~700g.
- Energy use per 100 km: Based on EPA/real-world efficiency for each model.
- Calculation: (CO2 per kWh) × (kWh per 100 km) = kg CO2 per 100 km.
Key Takeaways
- EU and US: Lower emissions due to cleaner electricity grids.
- China and India: Higher emissions due to coal-heavy grids.
- Efficiency matters: More efficient cars (like the Tesla Model 3) emit less CO2 per km, even in high-emission regions.
User: data from polestar and rivian lifecycle analyses in 2021 estimates that over its lifetime, the electricity used by an “average” electric vecicle produces a total of 26 tonnes CO2eq. using the data we now have, can we estimate lower and upper bounds for the age of the mentioned models where they would have “produced” 26tCO2eq in different regions?
Mistral: Let’s use the kWh per charge and CO2 per kWh by region from our earlier tables to estimate how many years it would take for the mentioned EV models to reach 26 tonnes CO2eq from charging alone, based on typical charging habits.
Recap of Key Data
- kWh per charge (typical): 20–40 kWh
- CO2 per kWh (2021):
- EU: 250 g
- US: 380 g
- China: 550 g
- India: 700 g
- Charging frequency: 2–3 times per week (104–156 charges/year)
Calculations
1. CO2 per Charge (kg)
- EU: 20–40 kWh × 0.25 kg = 5–10 kg CO2/charge
- US: 20–40 kWh × 0.38 kg = 7.6–15.2 kg CO2/charge
- China: 20–40 kWh × 0.55 kg = 11–22 kg CO2/charge
- India: 20–40 kWh × 0.70 kg = 14–28 kg CO2/charge
2. Annual CO2 from Charging
- EU: 5–10 kg/charge × 104–156 charges = 520–1,560 kg CO2/year
- US: 7.6–15.2 kg/charge × 104–156 charges = 790–2,371 kg CO2/year
- China: 11–22 kg/charge × 104–156 charges = 1,144–3,432 kg CO2/year
- India: 14–28 kg/charge × 104–156 charges = 1,456–4,368 kg CO2/year
3. Years to Reach 26 Tonnes (26,000 kg) CO2eq
- EU: 26,000 ÷ (520–1,560) = 17–50 years
- US: 26,000 ÷ (790–2,371) = 11–33 years
- China: 26,000 ÷ (1,144–3,432) = 8–23 years
- India: 26,000 ÷ (1,456–4,368) = 6–18 years
Note: These are rough estimates based on charging habits and grid emissions, and do not include manufacturing or other lifecycle emissions.
User: let’s see how they change with different charging frequencies.
Mistral: Here’s how the years to reach 26 tonnes CO2eq change with different charging frequencies (1x, 2x, 3x, and 4x per week), using the same kWh per charge (20–40 kWh) and 2021 grid emissions:
Assumptions
- kWh per charge: 20–40 kWh
- CO2 per kWh (2021): EU 250g, US 380g, China 550g, India 700g
Years to 26 Tonnes CO2eq by Charging Frequency
Region 1x/week ( 52 charges/yr) 2x/week (104 charges/yr) 3x/week (156 charges/yr) 4x/week (208 charges/yr) EU 34–100 years 17–50 years 11–33 years 8–25 years US 22–66 years 11–33 years 7–22 years 5–17 years China 15–45 years 8–23 years 5–15 years 4–11 years India 12–36 years 6–18 years 4–12 years 3–9 years User: what’s the average scrapping age of vehicles in the listed regions?
Mistral: Here’s the average scrapping age of vehicles in the regions you asked about, based on the latest available data:
Average Scrapping Age by Region (2021–2024)
Region Average Scrapping Age Notes European Union ~12–17 years EU average is 12.3 years; some countries (e.g., Greece, Estonia) average 17 years. Newer cars are found in Luxembourg (~7.9 years). United States ~12.6 years As of 2024, the average age of cars and light trucks on the road is 12.6 years, with scrappage rates around 4.5–4.6% per year. China ~10–15 years Most passenger vehicles are scrapped after 10–15 years, though policies are pushing for earlier scrappage of older, more polluting vehicles. India ~15 years The national scrappage policy targets vehicles older than 15 years for mandatory scrapping, with incentives for voluntary scrappage of private cars over 15 years. my takeaway is that, if charged three times a week, which seems to be common, most ev’s get to 26tCO2eq before being scrapped no matter their location.
i’m confused. you say “those wind turbines” but we’re talking about loads, not generators. on average, the world has less than 15% of its energy needs met by renewables.
incidentally, the us has the second most intstalled solar capacity of any single country, about 2/3rds that of europe.
wind turbines seem to average at 10kg CO2eq/MWh over their lifetime, but since they are not “plannable” power you always need something else to meet demand. if that something else is a gas peaker plant (490kg CO2eq/MWh), you’re screwed emissions wise.
Edit: Here’s a chart of the total CO2eq for the different regions of the world. using the 2021 EU number of 235g/kWh, 26 tonnes of total charging emissions would require you to fully charge a 2021 polestar 2 standard range 26 000 000g ÷ 235g ÷ 64kWh ≈ 1728 times, which would give the car a lifetime of between four and sixteen years, depending on your driving style (lower end you charge it every day, which is not realistic, higher end you charge once or twice a week). if we use the 2021 world average of 369g, that gives us 1101 full charges, or 3-10 years depending on driving style.
since it’s in tonnes of CO2 equivalent over the entire life of the vehicle it’s most likely very smoothed out.
yeah we can’t have nice things
source is polestar and rivian, as noted in the graphic.
solid-state batteries are not yet viable at vehicle scale.
lightyear went bankrupt in 2023.
threeish years apparently, given you run it on green electricity.
my anxiety guides me. i have no idea why i have it.
4·22 days agoif you reverse the polarity of the deflector and set up a concentrator in engineering.
you can tap into the resonance frequency of the warp field to stabilise the wave but you’d need to disable a level of core safeguards while materialising.
the entirety of office has localised hotkeys. whaddayamean ^F is “search”? it’s for fat text!
nope, that’s an NT thing
i’ve moved to helix, partly to stop myself tinkering and partly because the reversed command model is just easier. plus it has popup helpers.
not necessarily. you could also have done a yank-paste, or a repeated action, or had a command output into the buffer.
it’s a good habit to always leave the editor in normal mode between actions, because that makes for a cleaner edit history with smaller changesets in the undo tree.
…vim is sort of like driving stick in that way.
what is even more funny about this is that the name of that directory used to be locale-dependent, so in sweden it was just called “Program”, completely nullifying that idea.
i’ve never had the time to get into emacs, would love to though.
also, some layouts have the : on its own key, and if you include the esc in vim commands you’re not using vim correctly :)
being unable to read an infographic is not fud