I don’t know how sup will be, but signal is a mature product, run by a nonprofit, with functional apps etc. I moved my group of friends and my family years ago and it has all the essential features. People want stuff that just works, especially for talking and communicating daily. I doubt sup will be the same level of maturity while also offering the same security and privacy features as signal does, at least for years to come.

Yep, and it’s not even fully federated. Different servers have also quite a bit different focus.

I will steal from now on WoW comparison when talking about the fediverse!