cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/23918980
In the mid-2000s, the energy imbalance was about 0.6 watts per square metre (W/m2) on average. In recent years, the average was about 1.3 W/m2. **This means the rate at which energy is accumulating near the planet’s surface has doubled. **
FAaFO , we’re in the find out phase.
Exactly. No one wants to read that. It’s counter-intuitive, and it goes against the prevailing narrative. But the narrative that the media repeats is based on GWP100 accounting, even though we don’t have 100 years to address climate change. As Hansen and colleagues pointed out, people are not well-informed, and that’s true of the people deciding climate policy as well. Ignorance and denial of the facts will continue to make the situation ever more dire.
the cooling is short term. the heating effects will last centuries.
I think you’re over invested on this narrative. I have more confidence in NOAA, NASA etc.
Yes. Exactly. The aerosols have a cooling effect that is fast-acting but short-lasting. Carbon dioxide has a warming effect that is slow-acting but long-lasting. In the long term, the warming effect prevails, but on an annual basis, the cooling effect dominates. We no longer have centuries to address climate change, so considering what the effect of any mitigation strategy will be in the short term is crucial.